Here we are at the Thanksgiving Holiday! I’m dusting off all the family favorite recipes. Onion Dip: one part Lipton Onion Soup Mix and one pint of sour cream. Nothing says I grew up in the 70’s like serving that with potato chips to your guests. And, don’t forget the canned, jellied cranberry side dish which is becoming almost as scarce as newly mined Bitcoin.
I have a very long list this year of what to be thankful for including mine and my family’s health. For this post’s purposes though, I’ll focus on the important elements that I am thankful for as it relates to Bitcoin.
Number one is The Bitcoin Halving. I love deadlines. They help me focus, make decisions, and get things done. As it relates to Bitcoin, we’re all looking at a deadline of April 19, 2024. That is when the daily amount of new Bitcoin created is cut in half from approximately 900 new Bitcoin a day to 450 Bitcoin a day. This is written in code and secured by the most powerful decentralized computer network that man has ever known. No persons, governments, or institutions can change this fact. And we all should be prepared for what happens leading up to and especially after the halving.
We’ll have the first digital commodity becoming even more scarce while the power of the network and adoption rate continues to get stronger worldwide. Big institutions such as Black Rock and Fidelity and all the other recent Bitcoin ETF applications recognize this event and that is why we’re seeing a race to have Bitcoin ETFs approved before this event. If you can’t beat them, join them.
I would argue that all the other news and events happening in the broader cryptocurrency world, including the Sam Bankman Fried trial and this week’s news about the DOJ and Binance settlement, are all in preparation for next year’s halving. Clearing out the old dead wood paves the way for new, more transparent industry leaders to emerge that will have a higher level of trust with the general public.
I am also very grateful for the transparency of Bitcoin and the blockchain and how the aforementioned SBF trial taught us the importance of self-custody. Additionally, the fact that Bitcoin is truly different as the only digital asset based on proof of work, designed for everyone, and can’t be changed no matter who the stakeholder is and how big the stake. (See my last post Bitcoin and Everything Else.)
I can’t help but be grateful for and perhaps a bit of humble bragging for the last bear market. This time last year Bitcoin was around $16,000 with some bears predicting it would go to zero. That FUD enabled daily buys beyond my imagination and investing a sizable amount at the very bottom of the market. It helps that I have been following Bitcoin since 2010 and that this time I was armed with knowledge and history, so when so-called experts told me it was over I knew it was actually just beginning.
Which brings me to what I am most thankful for and that is that someone very clever going by the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakomoto was a visionary and had the technology know-how to set up a computer network that is unhackable, built to last with supply cut in half every four years right up until 2140. That’s right, he planned it out to 100 + years. I am so thankful for Satoshi Nakomoto and believe in 100 years from now, he will be looked upon for his contributions to society on par with Nicolas Tesla.
You see, at this point Bitcoin is only a teenager (15 years old). Think how much teenagers grow and mature and get even stronger after age 15. That’s the point we are at right now. The next four to five years are going to be transformative. Bitcoin will get bigger, stronger, and more relevant in the future just as all teenagers do in growing to adulthood. I am thankful that Satoshi created something for future generations and that we all have a chance to participate on an equal footing.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Jim